I’ve been covering the Oscars professionally for nearly a decade now, and this is hands down the wildest season I’ve ever been a part of. I’m used to close calls between a couple of contenders and smear campaigns that can bring certain films down. But this has been a loud, contentious race that is quite frankly all over the place. Best Picture is pretty much wide open after the various guilds failed to coalesce behind one, two, or even three major contenders, and we’re dealing with an Academy whose voter demographic is in the midst of changing dramatically. And this is all to say nothing of the fiasco that is the Oscars telecast itself.

Precedents were made to be broken, and indeed as the Academy has grown younger and more diverse, they’ve strayed from “statistics” that point to certain winners. Stats told us that La La Land had Best Picture in the bag, and yet Moonlight took home the big prize with only one major guild win. So when it comes to predicting the big winners this year, there’s a lot more guesswork involved, and it’ll be mighty interesting to see where things land on Sunday night.

Having covered this year’s race since long ago, back when A Star Is Born was the frontrunner in five major categories, I’m mostly just ready to see where things fall. So without further ado, here are my final Oscar predictions in every single category.

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

This is the most wide-open Best Picture race in recent memory. The Producers Guild Award went to Green Book, the Directors Guild Award went to Roma, and the Screen Actors Guild Award went to Black Panther. The guilds have not rallied support behind a single frontrunner like in years past, which means it’s kind of anyone’s to win. Green Book certainly has a shot, and seemingly hasn’t been damaged a bit by all of its controversies. Black Panther winning would be a monumental achievement, and a move towards more populist entertainment.

But I still think the preferential ballot favors Roma. Even if Roma isn’t your #1 pick, recognition for the craft and skill involved is likely to land it a lot of #2 and #3 votes. Whereas something like Bohemian Rhapsody is seemingly far too divisive to win—and yet it’s been trucking right along. If it does pull off the W, it’ll be the worst-reviewed winner in recent history.

Then there’s A Star Is Born, which was primed and ready to coast though the season before it fell prey to Early Frontrunner Syndrome, which similarly struck films like The Social Network and La La Land. But perhaps the Academy has one major surprise in its hat and Bradley Cooper picks up his first and only win for the Oscar season. It would certainly be a fitting end to the strangest awards run I can remember.

But I think Best Picture comes down to Roma, Green Book, and Black Panther. I could see a path to victory for all three, whereas I think it’s harder for the rest (or maybe I just don’t want to think about Bohemian Rhapsody winning a freaking Best Picture Oscar). Roma is a towering cinematic achievement and I think its performance on a preferential ballot gives it the leg up, plus it won the BAFTA Best Picture trophy as well, so I’m going with that.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: A Star Is Born

Should Have Been Nominated: Minding the Gap

Best Director

Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

Adam McKay – Vice

Only seven times since the DGA’s inception back in 1948 has the winner not gone on to take the Best Director Oscar, and it’s only happened twice since 2000, so you’d be foolish to bet against it. Alfonso Cuarón took home the DGA so this is probably his to lose, but there is an ever-so-slight chance that Spike Lee could play the spoiler. But the safe money’s on Cuarón.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Could Win: Spike Lee

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Should Have Been Nominated: Bradley Cooper

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Glenn Close – The Wife

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

The Best Actress race seemed prime to be down to Lady Gaga vs. Olivia Colman, but Glenn Close made a grand entrance with her Golden Globe win in January and has been the frontrunner ever since. She has a number of things going for her—she’s never won before, she’s beloved, and she nailed that Golden Globes speech. This is one of those “it’s her time” wins that the Academy likes to award, but if you’re looking to go with a dark horse, Olivia Colman won the BAFTA and could maybe pull off an upset.

Will Win: Glenn Close

Could Win: Olivia Colman

Should Win: Olivia Colman

Should Have Been Nominated: Carey Mulligan, Wildlife

Best Actor

Christian Bale – Vice

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

The SAG Best Actor winner has gone on to win the Best Actor Oscar 13 of the last 14 years in a row, and there’s no reason to think it’s going to be different this year. Rami Malek has been the face of Bohemian Rhapsody’s unlikely awards surge over the past couple of months, and it very much looks as though he’ll be taking home his first Oscar on Sunday. Sorry, Bradley.

Will Win: Rami Malek

Could Win: Christian Bale

Should Win: Bradley Cooper

Should Have Been Nominated: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – Vice

Marina de Tavira – Roma

Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

This is actually one of the hardest categories to predict this year. Regina King has been the presumed frontunner for months, but she wasn’t even nominated by SAG or BAFTA. Still, she’s a beloved figure in the industry, and her acceptance speeches have been lovely so far. I think she takes it, but watch out for Rachel Weisz to play the spoiler in what has historically been a category packed with surprise wins.

Will Win: Regina King

Could Win: Rachel Weisz

Should Win: Rachel Weisz

Should Have Been Nominated: Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell – Vice

Each awards season there’s one actor who just seems to steamroll through every precursor award and glide on up to the Oscar stage. This year that actor is Mahershala Ali.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Could Win: Richard E. Grant

Should Win: Richard E. Grant

Should Have Been Nominated: Jeff Bridges, Bad Times at the El Royale

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel and Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee

Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins

A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

This is a stacked category. I’d have more confidence in If Beale Street Could Talk here if the Academy had shown more love towards the film overall, but its lack of major nominations seems to signal to me that there’s not a huge quantity of passionate support. Can You Ever Forgive Me? took the WGA award here and is a solid contender, but I’m going with BlacKkKlansman—which won the BAFTA—because I’m thinking it’s going to be hard for many Academy members to resist voting to give Spike Lee his first competitive Oscar.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

Should Have Been Nominated: The Hate U Give

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite – Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

First Reformed – Paul Schrader

Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly

Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

Vice – Adam McKay

If Green Book wins in this category, watch for it to take Best Picture as well. But since I have Roma for Best Picture, and that film’s screenplay is somewhat sparse (and by Alfonso Cuarón’s own admission somewhat improvised), I’m going with BAFTA-winner The Favourite. In recent years, the Academy has looked to these screenplay categories as a way to award critically acclaimed films they’re not voting for in the major categories (see: Her, Get Out), so I think this is a nice way of recognizing one of the year’s best-reviewed films. In that vein, I wouldn't be shocked if?First Reformed?took it either.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Green Book

Should Win: First Reformed

Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum – Lebanon

Cold War – Poland

Never Look Away – Germany

Roma – Mexico

Shoplifters – Japan

I both think this is a no-brainer win for Roma and also admit there’s a slight chance the critically beloved Cold War could take it. The safe money is on Roma.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Roma

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This one seems obvious, but it’s actually not. Disney has won this category nine of the last 10 times, including when Big Hero 6 shocked over the critically acclaimed How to Train Your Dragon 2. Moreover, Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s The LEGO Movie was famously passed over for a nomination here. Disney has more voters in the Academy than any other studio, so don’t be shocked if Incredibles 2 takes this, but I’m gonna try to be optimistic and go with the groundbreaking Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Could Win: Incredibles 2

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

The winner of this category is usually a film that leaves voters feeling happy or heartwarmed rather than something tough or difficult (see: The Act of Killing losing to 20 Feet from Stardom), so I think this is between Free Solo and RBG. Free Solo has really hit a nerve with a lot of folks in the industry, and National Geographic has done a great job of pushing the film during awards season, so I’m going with that.

Will Win: Free Solo

Could Win: RBG

Should Win: Minding the Gap

Should Have Been Nominated:?Won't You Be My Neighbor?

Best Cinematography

Cold War – ?ukasz ?al

The Favourite – Robbie Ryan

Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel

Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique

I’m betting Alfonso Cuarón takes this in a category that will, thankfully, be televised, but it’s a shame that Matthew Libatique’s stunning shot composition in A Star Is Born is going somewhat overlooked.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win:?A Star Is Born

Should Have Been Nominated: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown

Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman

The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito

Vice – Hank Corwin

This is the weirdest category of the night, just in terms of what is and isn’t nominated. The winner of the ACE Eddie award has matched up with Oscar two of the last five years, which would point towards Bohemian Rhapsody. But BAFTA’s Best Editing matched up three of the last five years, including the shocking Whiplash win. When in doubt re: picking Oscar winners, replace “best” with “most”, so I’m going with BAFTA winner?Vice here for some very obvious if admittedly impressive editing. But don’t be shocked if this goes to Bohemian Rhapsody—a narrative has picked up recently that editor John Ottman “saved” the film after director Bryan Singer was fired in the midst of production.

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

Should Have Been Nominated: A Star Is Born and Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Best Original Score

Black Panther – Ludwig G?ransson

BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard

If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell

Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat

Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman

This one’s kind of a toss up. I could really see Black Panther taking this, but I’m going with my gut and saying Nicholas Britell’s gorgeous score for If Beale Street Could Talk wins.

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Have Been Nominated: First Man

Best Original Song

“All the Stars” – Black Panther

“I’ll Fight” – RGB

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns

“Shallow” – A Star Is Born

“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

It kills me to say it, but I’m predicting this to be A Star Is Born’s one and only win for the night.

Will Win: “Shallow”

Could Win: “All the Stars”

Should Win: “Shallow”

Should Have Been Nominated: “Maybe It’s Time” – A Star Is Born

Best Production Design

Black Panther – Hannah Beachler

The Favourite – Fiona Crombie

First Man – Nathan Crowley

Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre

Roma – Eugenio Caballero

The Art Directors Guild is a very reliable predictor of victory here, so even though I think Black Panther has a shot, I’m going with The Favourite.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: Roma

Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres

Black Panther – Ruth E Carter

The Favourite – Sandy Powell

Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell

Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne

Conventional wisdom would point to a flashy period film here, which would probably be The Favourite, but Ruth E. Carter is a legend and she’s been generating Oscar buzz for Black Panther for literally a year. Here’s hoping that comes through.

Will Win: Black Panther

Could Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Black Panther

Should Have Been Nominated: Crazy Rich Asians

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Border

Mary Queen of Scots

Vice?

Turning Christian Bale into Dick Cheney was an impossible task, but the Vice team pulled it off beautifully. I think they take a deserved win.

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: Border

Should Win: Vice

Should Have Been Nominated: Suspiria

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

This is a historically weird category. None of the Planet of the Apes movies won despite groundbreaking effects, and more often than not this goes to a prestige-y film (remember the wins for Hugo and Ex Machina). So while Thanos was impressive, I’m going with First Man.

Will Win: First Man

Could Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Should Win: Ready Player One

Should Have Been Nominated: Paddington 2

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

The difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing is this: Sound Editing is the creation of sounds from the ground up (explosions, animal noises, etc.) whereas Sound Mixing is how all the sounds in the film are mixed together. Most voters don’t know the difference, however, and Sound Editing usually goes to a big, loud movie. That would point towards First Man, but for some reason I have a feeling A Quiet Place is gonna take this one. I dunno. When you see the film's title you just think “sound”, and John Krasinski and Emily Blunt charmed the heck out of everyone on the awards circuit this year, so this is a way to throw some love towards that movie.

Will Win: A Quiet Place

Could Win: First Man

Should Win: Roma

Should Have Been Nominated: Mission: Impossible – Fallout